Poker variance

I had an interesting theory about poker variance and tournaments.

Lets say you get dealt AKs 10 times, and your opponent gets all in with QQ each time. You win 5 he wins 5, and that's roughly the expectancy of AKs vs QQ. Now realistically each time this happens it's 50/50. Over the long term, it will even out, but in the short term it can go either way. Even then, the most likely scenario you see in poker, is I win one, then he wins one, then I win two, he wins one, I win one, he wins two etc. It generally doesn't venture too far from overall expectancy even in the short term.

Occasionally though, a hot streak happens one way or the other. Suddenly I win 5 in a row. Then at another occasion I lose 5 in a row. Now if I don't ever tilt, and neither does my opponent, we see this as variance and understand for every 10 of these situations that I get, I will win 5. So variance to me is simply, I will get this back later, when luck runs my way for a while.

In tournaments these variance streaks can make or break a tournament. If I win 4 AKs vs QQ all ins in a row, I'm obviously running above expectancy. However, winning these 4 in a row, will mean I'm probably getting myself ready for a final table and really cashing well.

So what does standard poker variance mean to a cash player and tournament player. To a cash player it's simply a way to experience tilt control, to a tournament player it's something you will need to win a big tournament. Interesting way to look at poker variance.