Sunday, February 22, 2009

Happy with how it's going

I'll put in one more normal post, and come back to the tilt one which is still hot on my mind very soon.

So I played a bit on Friday and Sunday, and there is something in the air right now, because I feel like I'm crushing the game. Now this isn't a results oriented post, and there has been some sickness in some hands, but overall, my feelings are I've had great success at improving my game the last few months, and really feel like it's paying off.

Shout out to some skypers, joseph the coach mostly, but others too. But big shout out to HEM too. PT3 was a pretty big disappointment for me, but now using HEM, I'm finding I'm really using it, and using it well. I'm table selecting pretty hard for one, and finding myself on 2-3 soft tables on Full Tilt. From that point on I'm playing those tables pretty well. I'm probably playing a little too tight, but feel like I'm making good calls/raises/laydowns at different points in hands. I pretty much always look at positiong PF stats, and cbet/turn cbet %'s before making a call or raise PF. I find myself bluffing less and less, which I think is really helping, especially when you see what some people call down with, would hate to be bluffing these guys.

Anyway, whats really pleasing is I really find myself spotting more and more hands players are holding. I'm putting people on exactly AQ or 55 in spots, and getting it right more often than I'd believe myself. Last night I couldn't lay down T9 on a T55Tx in the slightest, but given the way he played it I thought he had 55 a lot and he did. I also value shoved TT on an ATxxA river knowing he had AK or AQ and would definitely call, and he did indeed have AQ. But it just feels great seeing their hole cards in your mind and getting it right a lot, really really pleasing, especially when most of the hands people show up with were in your ranges of what you thought they could have PF.

I'm contemplating leaving some BR on several sites. The reason is I'd like to experiment with multi-siting. If Full Tilt is tight or loose tables have waiting lists, then I'm pretty much buring money not sitting down, yet don't want to sit down on tight tables. If I had OnGame and maybe even UB or Party Poker open as well, then I could really sit down on 3-4 ultra soft tables most of the time rather than all soft tables 20% of the time I play, which I achieved for about 1 hour last night, but often don't have 3 soft tables. I passed it by a better player and he completely agreed it's a huge advantage to be able to play several sites.

Thursday, February 19, 2009

Winning poker guide: Step 1 - Who is working

Well, as I said before in my recent blogs, results from now are completely banned from my blogs, my forum posts, my chats. So if I can't focus on my results, it does beg the question what is left for me to strive for. Well obviously, I'm aware that if I play well results will happen. You see I've been a believer of sorts that you have to play like the biggest genius in poker history to really beat games, and it will only get worse as opponents get more educated. The fact is it's not true. Think about sites like Cardrunners and their effect on poker. The training sites are improving players, no doubt and they have improved me a lot. But who goes there? Well if you listen to poker podcasts, everyone is going there. So lets look at some numbers. At any time there are well over 100K people on pokerstars, maybe half that on Full Tilt, and another 50-100K spread over all the other sites. So maybe 500K people playing online poker overall. Some are new and destined to play 1 month and quit, others are regs grinding 10 hours a day, fair enough.

So then look at the video sites. As at 6 months ago cardrunners had 10K members. That could be 20K now with all the publicity, but I can't see them being any more than that. Other sites may be doing well, but I'd expect a lot of crossover, maybe 5K of those guys are also on Deucescracked and another 5K are only on DeucesCracked. So lets so over 50K of players are members of video sites, which I think is high overall. So out of the 500K, we currently guesstimate 10% have ever seen a decent video on poker. Lets say for argument sake another 50K have participated in forums quite a bit too, making 20% of players more educated than just being self taught.

Now there is the obvious hole in that logic that it's very likely the 1c/2c players aren't on the video sites as much as the $2/$4 guys are. It's also safe to assume more players on the side of the smaller stakes. But with that I'd argue a lot of the 50-100K of "educated" players are just casually watching videos or surfing BBV forums rather than sitting down and logically working out poker problems for themselves and understanding what moves to make when.

The problems lies in that there is the big success stories, and there are the known tools of how to crush poker all out there. So you see mbolt1 go from a $30K per year job, to a $100K/month poker career. You are inspired, how did he do that? Oh he joined Stox, watched the videos, now he's $100K/month. Wrong. He worked, and worked, and worked, and worked. He networked, he worked at his game, he learned ways to avoid losing money, he succeeded. Isn't there a lot of work behind most success stories? Yes, there is. Now most people feel the inspiration, but most do not work hard enough to become an inspirational story. And yes some are becoming the competent grinders on Full Tilts $1/$2 etc, but most are not as good as they think they are. And while they manage to be better than break even, their work ethic, ego or tilt hold them back.

I will continue with a thread about tilt, that may very well include the essence of how to win at poker in my opinion.

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

Keep on changing.

Interestingly enough, I didn't run too good last couple of nights. However, this is it for complaints. I looked over the plays I made, and all but two were good, and all but one saw me mostly getting my money in good, or what would be good a lot. That one was a brain fade shipping it in with 99 PF against a guy who I thought was raising over 30%, but after figures settled down it turns out he was more like 20/16, lol. Either way, 99 AIPF is not a good thing at these stakes, almost ever.

Instead of bitch about how the pots shifted from me being heavy favourite to villains collecting them, I will mention a couple of interesting things. Firstly, after a while at the table, and down a few blinds, mainly from raising one too many hands and having to fold on the flop or after, I got AA in the CO. Raise, 3 folds, steal, YES!!! OK, so what happened there? I'm raising 30% so far on this table, yet when I get dealt AA, get no action. What's happening is people are still looking directly at their cards. They aren't saying "well, this guy is raising too much, I might try to exploit him" or "I wonder if I can 3 bet him lightly here" they are literally saying "I have J4o, I'm folding." So what you say, J4o is a perfectly normally fold. Well, it's just that you feel if you'd raised 12% of hands, that AA should never be called/raised, and that raising 30% gives you the right to get more calls/raises with AA. It does. However, it's not that much more often. Someone calls with 55 on the button, regardless of what you hold, because they want to hit a set. They might however, play a hand like A9 or 76s differently depending on the raiser and position. But it's still literally a handful of hands they might play differently depending on villain and positions, and the rest are all simple folds, raises and calls. Bad players may give you more or less credit postflop based on your PF stats, but to be honest, they are still looking at their hands a lot, and sometimes at the board textures.

So where am I going? Nowhere really. I guess the point might be that if you open Q7s on the CO, you need to realise what it's going to do for you. In higher stakes, it might help disguise your otherwise good starting hands, but in lower stakes, this isn't necessary, as people aren't putting you strongly on a range anyway. So waiting for the bigger hands is not a horrible play.

As for my read of other players, it's getting pretty good. I still have stacks of ideas off the tables, that don't always make it into my decisions at the time, but it's coming. I can now quite easily factor in some things, have an idea about possible scare cards, and thanks to Joseph, also think about not only what people would do with different made hands and drawing hands, but also how they would bluff.

I might set this as a short term goal. Try to work out what things I'm not thinking about enough at the tables and add those decisions in one by one, until they become natural. Like for now I might focus on putting people on a range on each flop, and see where that gets me.

As for where and what I play, I have no idea. I'm contemplating moving from OnGame for a while, and trying something different. If it means I get my game in a better place, then that's a good thing overall. I "might" get onto FTP again, but it's really quite hard to say. Time will tell, I haven't made up my mind yet, but at least it's never permanent.

Sunday, February 15, 2009

Stuff is happening

Blog has been updated pretty poorly in recent times. It probably doesn't help that I'm not getting anything decent going for my efforts at poker right now. And I could swear at the end of January I was ready to start "earning" the monies from poker.

Feb so far, cooler after suckout after bad play after weak play. It shows massive amounts of immaturity. I have had some sick beats, and they just seem to weigh down on my play far too much. And then I'll play 50 good hands to start a session and won't be thinking anything negative. First beat happens, and I'm straight back where I've been all month, wondering how I'm ever going to profit from poker.

I have had some great chats with some players though, and I can't understand in any way that if I stick at it I won't be a very profitable player long term. It just seems unrealistic to me.

It's possible, although only a small chance right now, that I may not be grinding much longer. A possibly great web idea work opportunity has come up, and if it seems as good as it does now if a couple of weeks, I can only imagine I'll be shifting my time away from poker and into this idea. But if anything that puts my play into the perspective that I must make the absolute most out of the time I get to play. So I'll keep playing as well as I know how in the short term, and see how things turn out on the work front.

As far as my goals in poker go, I really feel like I've been playing my best this last week for no returns, but at least haven't kept the downslide going and really feel my next upswing will be "big". So I look forward to methodically tearing apart NL100 or NL50 games at OnGame this week when I play. I will know my opponents hole cards always, and will play those hole cards for maximum profit. It will be a beatiful thing, and the poker gods can do what they will with to make my week profitable or not.

Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Poker is sick

Well, it was bound to come to an end. My run good is officially over, and downswingaments are in it's place. I know I'd already lost a bunch this month, but with a big positive night, most would still be healed. Monday night was fairly fruitless getting up a BI, down a BI repeated over and over, to finish up barely.

Well last night looked much the same. The tables were OK, and I was playing OK, was up a bit. I took a break when a couple of fish left, and came back to a pretty dry scene. No tables with decent VPIP's, so I headed to HU. Nothin dramatic happened there, but I checked back to the 6 max, and tables were OK again. Once more things dryed up, and at one point when a fish left, I noticed all three tables were officially full of TAG's. This is really bad news. OnGame has been so lively, now it's back to grinding againt a bunch of TAG's. I'd have to say I won't be upset about leaving OnGame if it stays like this for much longer. I closed down my tables, and saw just one table with a VPIP over 40, which was a Nl200 table, so I joined, to one table it.

I had great position on the fish and the TAG's, so it was a good table, but I couldn't win a pot. I was the LAG in the end beating up on the 55/0, but whenever I made a hand, he made one better. J3o is always worth a 5BB isolation raise OOP, and of course it hits 2 pair. I donked off about $250 before hitting a couple of hands and reducing the pain to around $160, then the fish left. I insta quit at that point as 3 NL200 TAG's and a semi fish don't appeal.

I left for NL50 HU, and was up a BI shortly after. Then IT happened. Most bad nights involve an it, and in this case, a very 3 bet happy guy 3 bet me holding A2s. I decided to flat it for once, and flopped the nut flush FTW. Only when we shipped it in, his 97o was drawing oh so live with 2 pair, and got there. At this point this was for 150BB pot too, so I was down after being up a BI and stacking off with nut flush vs 2 pair. I lost the rest, probably playing some C game, and decided to up the ante and play NL100.

Down another BI there, I couldn't really stop, and suddenly starting running good for once. I stacked a guy who left, then was up another BI on the next guy, and things were looking up. That didn't last thought, and sickness prevailed, bringing me down to $0 against that guy and getitng stacked by another. There was certainly some bad play, but overall, I just can't get a hand to hold on, and so often I am force to fold TPTK on the river, and depending on how I feel and who I'm playing I either do or I don't.

I have to say, this was over several hours of session too long. At 11pm I should have just quit, but kept going until 2am for some insane reason. This is a sickness similar to drugs, drinking or degen gambling, and is not good for my mental state or health. I have to set session time limits, especially when I'm running bad, and maybe play big mega session when I'm running good (sounds sensible).

But that's OK. I can just keep trying to play my best, and I know that the thousands of winning players have battled through these streaks just fine and I will too, there is no problem there. Actually it's very satisfying having this happen, as it will give me strength when I realise I am up for the month by Feb 28. That isn't necessarily my goal, but my goal of playing my best for the rest of the month will hopefully see that happen at least in part.

That said, I may take a break from NL100 for a little bit. Or maybe just table select a little better, and if tables are too tight, maybe then move down to NL50 for some carnage. I have to make sure I'm not too proud to play lower stakes, as my bankroll is dwindling, and if I keep going on this sick streak, my bankroll will be too low to grind NL100 and I'll be forced to play NL50, which is far beyond what I want right now.

Sunday, February 8, 2009

Profits are gone

Well, Feb has turned bad after a decent enough start to the month. So far it's gone like this. Day 1 was pretty unlucky, having big favourites get done and a couple hold on, down not much overall. Day 2 I felt I played a bit worse, but didn't have any bad luck really, up around $160 over the 2 days. Day 3 was pretty rotten, things went bad, and caused me to tilt a bit. I had passed a bonus $50 and still ended up down over $300, but missing a lot of all in equity I was due. Day 4 was more of the same, losing every imaginable cooler and suckout I could imagine. I finished down a further $600. Day 5 saw me swinging like nothing else, being up then down, then down more, then back to even, etc etc, to be down about $100 overall. Net result is close to $1000 down for the month, which is unfortunate.

So what happened? Well, it's a combination of things, but basically, I put a lot of blame on Day 4 or Thursday night. I had played pretty well until a huge suckout on Wednesday (KK vs JJ all in on turn, river J) and played a bit bad, and long after that. By Thursday I was a little jaded, quite tired and ready for a mental break. Rather than do this, I played a lot of poker, and in fact grinded some NL200, and NL100 HU, both of which are above my level, not a great idea when tired and not playing well. I don't think I played really terrible, but I got myself into more spots than I needed to, and found myself not playing my A game, yet playing good players, which is not a good mix.

Looking over the big losers, there is little I can effectively do with some of them. I mean there are the fold PF or fold flops here or there, but most situations play themselves out and see me winning money in the long term. I definitely didn't play each hand optimally though, so still plenty of room for in game improvements, which is always good news.

The one dissapointing thing was seeing a lot more regs hanging around last week. You had to go on waiting lists to get the best tables, and while the fish were still around, it could turn into a TAG 3 bet fest amongst the others at the table, which might see 1 real fish, 1 tight weak player, and 3 TAG/LAGs. I wasn't playing optimally against the TAG's or LAG's, and found myself giving money over to these more competant players, often by trying to outplay them. It was worst on Monday, and felt like a real grind, so I'll see how it goes tonight. But overall, I think I have to accept things may be a little tougher in the next few weeks, and make sure I don't spew to the more straight forward TAG players.

The best thing was taking a break last night. I could have easily grinded, but instead took the night off, and really feel refreshed after also taking Saturday off. I feel as though I'm more mentally prepared for poker tonight, especially after getting some sleep also. I'm going to grind out a fairly solid night of play tonight, and all I can say is watch NL100 on OnGame, because I'm going to be doing everything right tonight, and only need marginally good cards to make me a decent profit tonight.

Monday, February 2, 2009

Where did the fish go?

It was a rather strange night of poker last night. I've pretty much decided to keep all my play on OnGame, as the action there is so much better than Pokerstars/FTP/ most other sites, although I'll admit another fling at iPoker would be worth a look.

So I managed to pretty easily this time move most of my bankroll from various sites to Hey Poker, where I should get constant 8x bonuses, and possibly a decent points shop, although it's down at the moment so it's hard to tell.

So sitting down with my bankroll on there, I just felt a little suprised as I thought I'd have very little and have to muck around, or not even play possibly. I could play whatever however, so went about setting up the software and ... well playing. Only, tables were very scarce. The usual 40+ VPIP tables weren't to be seen, and when I sat at one that claimed to be 40+ VPIP, it suddenly turned into a bunch of 22/18 grinders!!! What the hell happened to my tables. It's possible this is usual for the early part of the week, but I'm panicking that my sickly sweet tables have dried up due to there being some crazy January deal that people were chasing like free ipods etc. We'll see.

So my only interesting moment there at 6 max was stacking off AKs to AA, down 1 BI. I decided to play some HU and was running over someone before he hit the nutz, down another half BI, but at NL50. I then tried to seriously look for 6 max tables, but only one on my page looked decent at all, and it was NL200!!! So I joined. I added a fairly loose NL100 table, but was focusing on the big table. I played a bit of this and was up just a little, but would have been more if it wasn't for a decent bluff that ran into the top of his range. I finished the night slightly down, but had a good confidence boost mixing it up and still managing to hold my own.

I'm not ultimately that concerned with the tables yet, but another week or two of dry tables, and I might be forced to take a look at iPoker to see how they run there. I can't say I'm that pleased to do that, but I'm not going to risk my bankroll too often just trying to find tables that suit me.

On another note, I'm more than happy with how I'm playing now. I feel I can mix it up with the TAG's just about anywhere up to the NL50/NL100 levels, but really focus on getting the money from the fish at the table. I've had it easy with so many donks donating money, but am getting very comfortable fishing finding and stomping. I'm certain I'm never going to be the big 10 tabling 6 max guy, but more likely to turn into a professional fish finder more than anything else. I will try to put extra emphasis on improving my fish finding skills this month I think, and start labelling people again as to where I want to sit like I have in the past. Obviously really loose or aggro players I want on my right, any tight or positionally unaware people I'm happy to have on my left. I think this is certainly where the easiest money is, and I want to feel comfortable sitting on a NL200/NL400 table if the fish find their way there, without giving away too much of an edge against the TAG/LAG's at those levels.

Sunday, February 1, 2009

Back into it

January felt like a holiday and while I don't expect it to last, I will do everything I can to be a profitable player at least.

My first crack at Feb was actually still Jan according to Pokerstars. So I used that fact to tie up my Silverstar level, with some HU SNG's. It went pretty badly, down $70 without too much effort. Mix of running bad, and trying a couple of high variance semi-bluffs. One funny situation saw me run into a HU cash player I crushed for 3 BI's the other night. He instantly started chatting about how tilted he was that night etc, so funny.

OnGame was a normal night session, and started about as horrible as ever. The flop saw me betting as big favourite most of the time, but turn and river, people just hit. People just flopped flush draws against me all the time, and were hitting a lot. On top of that I'd have better pairs or kickers and people would hit their 2 or 3 outer, and of course I'd stack off. I took a break almost putting OnGame aside, but something kept me coming back, and I got some of my losses back, even though I still got coolered and sucked out on again a couple of times. I'm mostly very happy with my play, although there is still too many call downs that just don't make sense against any hand but bluffs. Even one winner would have been the same, only I knew the guy was a maniac, and that JJ overpair was good.

All in all, a pretty bad day for results, but very encouraged by how I played big hands. I also cleared my $250 bonus on OnGame, so my accounts did go up today at least. I now have to see how to get my next bonus at OnGame, which isn't overly clear just yet. I will probably end up going over to Hey Poker, as I've heard they have ongoing reloads and a points shop too. Certainly no reason to leave OnGame any time soon.