Monday, January 19, 2009

Run good ends abrubptly

Goals:
1. Get 3 tables, and try to get reads going
2. Quit tables quick if there isn't good stacks in position or aggro players on left
3. Try to make the "good play" rather than calling/raising/folding without thinking it through

Monthly goal for hands:
20 hours left - 250 hands/hour = 5K hands by end of Jan

Tonights goal = 500+ hands

Results:
1. Yes, and a little. Reads were thinner than usual, partially because 3 tables, partially because I wasn't playing 100% A game and feeling tilt and dizziness at different points. I really missed out on hand ranging somewhat.
2. I actually did this pretty well, but the tables weren't the problem.
3. I feel a little rushed still with 3 tables up, and don't always make the best decision, especially in limped pots, or when a table is 3 handed for a bit.

I also added in a hand goal. I said I'd do that next month, but there is no reason why I can't start a 3 table goal for now. I figured about 250 hands per hour, or 500 over two hours was reasonable. I ended up very close to 250 hands/hour, but only got 375 hands in due to not being happy with either of my small sessions. I also snuck in two HU sessions, so I'm sure I achieved a decent play amount overall.

So to my performance. I have looked over pokertracker, and it's a lot of coin flips, all where I lose. AQ vs JJ, AK vs 55, KK vs turned flush where I had 2nd nut flush redraw and overpair, OESFD and overs vs top pair in on the flop (I am big favourite here). A couple of coolers like overpair in a HU match versus a set, and more coin flips there. Also plenty of ugly rivers that of course changed the result of the hand away from me. Even then I re-sucked when my flopped set was 2nd best hand by the turn when a flush hit, and one of my 10 river cards hit (why I love sets, you always have clean outs against straight and flushes), but this was only against a short stack.

So my night started at OnGame, playing 3 tables. I instantly got handed KK and lost $75 to a turned flush with a redraw. Sign of things to come. I pretty much got 0 momentum this session, and quit down $150 after about 50 minutes. I played some HU NL50 on pokerstars, and also ran bad. Overpair vs set and lost another coin flip. I took a break now, down around $250. I felt motivated again and started OnGame once more. I started playing better and getting some back, before I fell through the floor again. A missed bluff (really quite good, he just couldn't fold ace high, and it's duly noted), and quite a few missed cbets and turn cbets. Bluffing too much obviously. One more coin flip, and rather than being up I was down another $75, to now be $325 down. I didn't feel too bad and returned to Pokerstars HU, and coolered a decent (not great) player a couple of times, to finally get some back. I then won a flip against a short stack and decided that was it, down only $230 by the end, so at least not a bad finish.

Looking at pokertracker, I'm not disappointed by last night. I'll put it down to variance somewhat, and maybe try to get to a point where I can avoid getting too frisky against unknowns (who always end up being calling stations). On a positive note, my $100 PSO bonus was confirmed, and my $250 from OnGame is humming along (why is it you seem to get a lot of bonus points on big losing sessions :)), and should be finished sometime this month if I can keep 3 tabling NL100, which will be great. Still, it's nothing compared to running good or bad, so my focus will be far from here.

I think if there is one clear message to be learned from tonight, it's you need to distinguish the calling stations from the tight weaks postflop. I probably could have saved $100 if I'd just left these guys alone, but I felt like I had to go after them, because I didn't have the reads, but thought my hand looked stronger than it was. It's really hard to win at poker when you have some ideas of what your opponent might hold, but don't know if he can fold it. If you know what they hold, and whether they can fold it, you are really miles ahead.

Another thing I picked up on, is when you have air like AK on a 975dd or 87s on AK8r, you really focus a lot more on what your opponent has, but if you have KK overpair, you are worried a lot more about how strong your hand is, and how to extract value. Your first thoughts about what to do on a board would be to think about his range and what he'd do with that range, and play accordingly. Your hand only matters if it gets to showdown, so work out if you want it to get to showdown, and then work out if the board hits opponents range hard enough to extract some value while getting to showdown, or if you can get him to fold if you don't want a showdown.

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